“Nine-tenths of wisdom consists in being wise in time”.
Theodore Roosevelt.

It goes without saying that some Châteaux have produced some incredible wines and there is unprecedented level of demand. Unsurprisingly, the issue of pricing is the ‘hottest’ topic – much of which is purely conjecture however, what we can all bank on is a return to 2005 ‘opening’ prices. Unfortunately, what we are not enjoying is a buoyant exchange rate against the Euro, as we did during the 2005 En-Primeur campaign (Rate: 1.45). It doesn’t take a mastermind to deduce that if the Bordelaise do indeed return to the 2005 ‘opening’ prices then in fact, this campaign will set a new pricing record as we are adrift by 30% on the exchange rate alone. Be assured; the Bordelaise will not support the poor Brits and we’ll certainly have to foot the bill for the deficit in the exchange rate!

With this in mind (coupled with the extraordinary hype) it does raise the question regarding the value in buying the 2009 Bordeaux. I appreciate this is somewhat guesswork but lets take a hypothetical situation with one of the super-seconds, Château Léoville Las Cases. Robert Parker awarded a very mediocre ‘opening’ score of (92-94) which you would think would deter the Delon family from releasing their 2005 at an extravagant price. Well, we were all wrong as their ‘opening’ price was an eye watering £1,630.00 IB per case!  Today, the 2005, with a Parker score of (98) trades from between £1,900.00 to £2,000.00 IB per case thus yielding a modest 20% return.

The Delon family are extremely bullish and have felt that Léoville Las Cases should be a first-growth however, I’m fearful of their approach with their 2009 vintage. Robert Parker awards an ‘opening’ score of (96-100) and describes the 2009 as “one of the greatest Leoville Las Cases I have ever tasted, which is saying something given the many compelling wines that have been made at this estate”

So, is an ‘opening’ price of £2,000.00 per case on the cards? Before I answer, I have to declare that I hate to speculate however, and particularly if I were a betting man, my money would be firmly on a ‘yes’.

This in itself poses the next question “do I buy or not?” Personally, my heart would prefer to decline their offer however, my commercial instinct takes over and questions the current fine wine market and how it has evolved since the world economic downturn. There is no hiding from the fact that Asia has kept the fine wine market afloat. Moreover, Asia is the main contributing influence behind many of the new price-records, which the industry is currently enjoying. Take Château Lafite Rothschild: The 2000 vintage was available (Mid June 2009) for £10,000.00 per case. Today, £18,000.00+ is the asking price. How about the demoted (Parker score that is) 1982 Lafite?  £23,500.00 was the average buying price (again, mid June 2009). Today, the market is enjoying prices in excess of £35,000.00 per case. And, the 2004? £2,500.00 was the asking price (mid June 2009). Today, the wine is trading for £6,300.00. . .

I’m fully aware with Asia’s love affair with Lafite (and all wines within Lafite’s stable) however, Asia are buying a hell of lot more than Lafite. This morning, we have sold multiple cases of 2003 Château Haut Brion and 2005 Château Lascombes into Hong Kong. Interestingly, I had a conversation with a good friend and négociant in Bordeaux this morning who confirmed that circa 70% of their allocated 2008 Leoville Las Cases was sold into Asia during last years En-Primeur campaign.

Furthermore, you would be utterly surprised with the number of new specialist wine investment funds, which are now operating in Asia and India. Consequently, today’s ‘top’ Châteaux join the super-elite brands of Chanel, Porsche, Louis Vuitton etcetera. One also needs to factor in the finite supply from the ‘top’ Châteaux – Demand always outstrips the supply therefore, creating the perfect investment vehicle.

So, going back to my question of whether to buy Château Léoville Las Cases if it were to come out with an ‘opening’ price of £2,000.00.  In truth, I know I will struggle with my own conscience as I prefer to take some comfort from previous releases and how they are performing today. Unfortunately, I expect to be taken far outside my comfort zone with the 2009’s and I expect to make some very tough decisions’ whether to commit or not. One thing I will say is that I expect the 2009’s to set a new benchmark with regards to values now and in the future as I have never experienced demand like this and I’ve been buying En-Primeur since the 2000 vintage. Perhaps we are going to witness a new era for fine wine prices?

“Are the 2008 Bordeaux Written Off?”

Put simply, absolutely not. In fact, this couldn’t be further from the truth and as Robert Parker wrote in his April e-letter “2008 is a vintage that smart money will seek out” He goes on and says “This is a classic vintage, with some very strong wines, particularly from the top properties in the Médoc and on the Right Bank of Pomerol and St.-Emilion. There actually may be some Pomerols and St. Emilions that eclipse what those châteaux did in 2009. This is still a reasonably priced vintage, but the problem is that it is a very tiny crop, much smaller than either 2009 or 2007 (which, of course, accounts for the impressive concentration the best wines have), but they still represent a bargain”.

I’m pleased to report that trading is extremely buoyant on the 2008’s with prices rising across the board. The négociants of Bordeaux are also enjoying continued support for the 2008’s. As a result, prices out of Bordeaux are much higher than the advertised UK value. For example: Château Montrose now exceeds £600.00 per case, Pontet Canet not far off £650.00 and the first growths are prohibitively expensive with Mouton Rothschild exceeding £5,000.00 IB per case. . .

I also expect to see another resurgence if the 2009’s are too rich for some!